Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.6 expected goals in total

• 0–127%
• 2–347%
• 4+26%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• CRY29%
• NEW26%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 52%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

CRY · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Yeremy · probable37%goal 22% · assist 19%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	22%	20%	3%	none
  Assists	19%	17%	2%	none

• Wharton · probable27%goal 0% · assist 27%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	27%	23%	4%	none

• Strand Larsen · probable22%goal 21% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	21%	19%	2%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

NEW · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wissa · rotation risk46%goal 46% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	46%	33%	12%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Barnes · probable36%goal 30% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	30%	25%	5%	none
  Assists	9%	9%	0%	none

• J.Murphy · rotation risk26%goal 0% · assist 26%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	0%	0%	0%	none
  Assists	26%	22%	4%	none