Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

High

3.9 expected goals in total

• 0–110%
• 2–335%
• 4+55%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• HUL7%
• BRE28%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 67%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

HUL · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• McBurnie · rotation risk46%goal 44% · assist 4%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	44%	32%	12%	none
  Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

• Giles · rotation risk11%goal 3% · assist 9%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	3%	3%	0%	none
  Assists	9%	8%	0%	none

• Egan · rotation risk3%goal 2% · assist 2%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	2%	2%	0%	none
  Assists	2%	2%	0%	none

BRE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Wilson · rotation risk47%goal 24% · assist 30%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	24%	21%	3%	none
  Assists	30%	25%	5%	none

• Thiago · likely starter45%goal 43% · assist 4%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	43%	32%	11%	none
  Assists	4%	4%	0%	none

• Schade · probable39%goal 38% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	38%	30%	9%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none