Match climateiBoth sides' expected goals added together, banded low / medium / high.

Medium

2.7 expected goals in total

• 0–125%
• 2–347%
• 4+28%

Both teams' expected goals added together, then split into 0-1, 2-3, and 4+ total goals.

Clean sheetsie^-λ on the goals we expect the opponent to score. The same number the goalkeeper's card publishes.

• SUN30%
• LEE23%

Matches the goalkeepers' cards by construction.

Teams to scorei1 - e^-λ on the goals we expect that side to score.

Both to score: 54%iChance each side scores at least once, multiplied — goals assumed independent.

SUN · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Isidor · rotation risk33%goal 33% · assist 0%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	33%	27%	6%	none
  Assists	0%	0%	0%	none

• E.Le Fée · likely starter27%goal 18% · assist 10%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	18%	17%	2%	none
  Assists	10%	10%	1%	none

• Diarra · rotation risk23%goal 4% · assist 20%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	4%	4%	0%	none
  Assists	20%	18%	2%	none

LEE · anytime attacking returniThe player's expected goal involvements per 90, scaled by expected minutes and fixture difficulty.

• Nmecha · rotation risk53%goal 53% · assist 0%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	53%	35%	18%	none
  Assists	0%	0%	0%	none

• Calvert-Lewin · probable42%goal 41% · assist 1%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	41%	31%	10%	none
  Assists	1%	1%	0%	none

• Okafor · rotation risk32%goal 12% · assist 23%iThat same rate split by the player's season xG:xA share, so neither can exceed the return.

  	≥1	1	2+	Likely
  Goals	12%	11%	1%	none
  Assists	23%	20%	3%	none